Mood: lyrical
Topic: culture
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Picture: Thank heavens for the garbos taken at 5.10am this morning, with welcome light rain making for a cold job for these toilers.
Apparently influential columnist Andrew Bolt in his column June 6th 2007 in Melbourne
has called in effect for a 6 week time line on removal of PM John Howard to be replaced by Peter Costello .... who as Treasurer took a grilling from Kerry O'Brien of the 7.30 Report last night
Government welcomes strong economic figures
on why his Cabinet submission to act on climate change was rejected by PM Howard 4 years ago 2003. Costello was very light hearted and patient saying he had "set his course" sounding very much like "I told you so".
Also climate change sceptic Cardinal George Pell has been roundly and collectively repudiated by the NSW ALP - ostensibly on stem cell research, but also the subtext of climate change? One wonders. It would be interesting to know if Pell is quoted in the PM Howard's so called Clever Climate PR advertising package.
It would be quite orthodox for Pell to be in Howard's PR as a trenchant critic of the Greens and their alleged rival religious belief in global warming.
The ALP (federal and state) presumably know they have to neutralise Catholic cardinal Pell prior to the next federal election vis a vis Catholic voters on global warming let alone stem cell research for medical benefits.
And to underline how the climate is the main game PM Howard is in the news today prefacing attempts on a post Kyoto international deal at the Sept APEC in Sydney:
MARK DAVIS | John Howard will use this year's APEC summit to try to forge an international consensus on climate change.
Just as Glen Milne has written about this recently: Glenn Milne: APEC makes heavy weather for Howard | Opinion | The ...
Our sense of this is that it's all too late for long time, allegedly indispensible PM Howard.
...............
Which calls up this article (offline it seems) by Geoff Gallop hidden away in Higher Education May 16th in Murdoch press The Australian, perhaps explaining again his journey from depression to light in his new job as director of the graduate school of government at Sydney University (from which campus this writer is still capriciously banned?):
Not just the grip of the Bourke cronies running developer corruption through the ranks, not just the pro uranium mining stoush with federal colleagues, but also the underlying existential philosophical foundations of a post industrial economy. It's an article as if written by and for the Green Party:
Postscript #1 - press backgrounder climate change, G8, APEC
PM Howard seems to have woken up that climate change is a global problem and isn't going away on his watch judging by the press today. Shortly we will add a snapshot of the headlines. But for now some links showing that Howard like his mentor Bush regime are trying to play catchup for APEC in Sept if not G8 on now.
There is an intriguing side play to all this: Why was Peter Hartcher's so called blog story excluded from the paper version of the newspaper today: John & George and the G8: Who's copying whose homework? posted "6 June 2007 5.32 pm"?
This reminds us of the Marian Wilkinson story of the Singapore diplomatic alarm at nuclear energy (or worse) proliferation/safety problems in south east Asia, which also missed the paper print version: Asia-Pacific nuclear authority plan scuttled after safety debate ...
Other serious reporters today on this evolving geo politik theme of how to save our planet today, in scary real time are here:
Blair will be at his most persuasive
Canada joins PM on climate (p1 of The Australian)
Mike Steketee blog: Playing on fear
Vital role for APEC in any post-Kyoto framework
Dalai Lama calls for climate change action | The Daily Telegraph
including quote from Virgin Blue airline chief Brett Godfrey in furious agreement at a function with the Dalai.
Airline industry wakes up to green debate far too late
Good oil on carbon trading needed now
We wonder about Michael Costa Treasurer of NSW due to give the next NSW Budget speech on June 20th: NSW State Budget Lunch 2007 - CEDA
We noticed the increasingly rotund and rambling state of mind of the treasurer in the Upper House Question Time 8 days ago, effecting the nonchalance of a political assassin who fears no one and nothing and thus seems somehow a little careless.
But it's pretty dangerous it seems to us living and working in a chaotic zoo like NSW politics even for Costa. Might be a rampaging fang toothed Gibbon, or Kodiak Bear on the prowl at any time. We wrote of that slightly bizarre wild atmosphere up there at Macquarie St a week back here:
We get the intuition Costa may get a shock within the next 5 weeks. Politics is a frighteningly random and dangerous business really and those who live by, quite often die by the same ruthless play. Look at Chief of the DPP here just doing his job copping a fearsome flogging in the press:
Then look at these two hapless ASIO agents being prosecuted for allegedly leaking (?!), who must feel like they are lions on the main course in the Coloseum of old. Why the reporting restrictions? Why indeed has Chris Merritt the legal editor at The Australian and a seriously heavy journalist, formerly with the Australian Financial Review whacked this postage stamp story on p5 of The Weekend Australian. Heaven knows:
We bought the postcard of the Roma icon at right from the junk stall at Addison Rd Centre Market last Sunday to send to the thinking man's crumpet. Sure enough she has a column today about public/private censorship in today's press refering to "exotic fauna" - ironic really coming from the unique Liz Farrelly - and also "ancient Rome". Perfect.
And the apprehension by the coppers of a quite different Mediteranean type Tony Mokbel all seemed to gel together with Mr Costa, not for any illegal shipping on the latter's part. No totally legal coal export is Costa's game but he also has that cavalier style in his politics bragging 8 days ago to the 3 Green MPs how his dark suit was "the colour of coal", as if climate change was a figment.
It's probably easy for Costa, Premier Iemma with him, PM Howard too, to think it's only the economy that matters when people around them are pandering to their ego as per this cover of the Sydney Writer's Festival broadsheet #1 of 4, with Morris in the middle:
It's all enough to make us feel like the frog in this picture below for newsletter #2, one per day for the 4 day event, or the kid in this YouTube classic being chased by the wolf.
And not just me. Costa might consider just how many wolves there are in the legal fraternity when he attacks one of their own like Cowdery ... for doing his job. Lawyer Greg Barnes gave a clue to the anger within these halls of serious money and power yesterday on the crikey.com.au ezine. Nor would I think that's the end of the matter if I have any sense of my own legal profession here. Some serious hard cases in there the equal of one Michael Costa.
The Australian carry this emerging story as well as the ABC radio yesterday:
Labor, Greens set for swap deal | News | The Australian
There is also this news in the Canberra Times June 6th (?) which looks to be offline regarding Cr Keith Hughes, spouse of Harriet Swift both anti woochip colleagues of this writer:
The version we heard on the abc radio June 5th 2007 is that ALP policy will not be affected by any preference swap and audio of Senator Nettle said she welcomed the chance for her party to remove John Howard in his own seat of Bennelong.
It seems a very significant helping hand on national environment day for the re election of Greens Senator Nettle.
(How familiar is this? How many people 'speak' one view and actually vote for their self-interest?)
This is a cautionary open letter of advice for green and red baiter Andrew Bolt there at the Herald Sun in Melbourne equivalent of the Sydney Daily Telegraph here:
The Age drowning in hype | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog
Dear Bolter
I saw you scoffing on Insiders , and the scoffing at your scoffing. You scorned this report carrying the picture above: page 1 The Age 2nd June 07 Landmarks at 'high risk' from rising sea levels - National ...
Here is the bad news: Dr James Hansen of NASA (you know, the guys revered for sending man to the moon) has analysed West Antarctica and Greenland with its above sea level ice volume. His advice is that there is accelerated melting via crevasse cracks. It's 1 mm sea rise per year now but NON LINEAR. 1cm in 10years. Then quite possibly double the RATE every 10 years ie 2cms 20 years, 4cm after 30 years. Do the math, by 2100 its 5.11m sea rise. You will see it's right.
A report is here on USA Grist news site 15 May 2007 An interview with renowned climate scientist James Hansen |
"I've actually written a paper and submitted it called "Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise" [PDF], because it just seemed to me that there was a gap between what scientists really thought and what was in the public knowledge in regards to ice sheet stability and sea level rise."
at the pdf [bold added] dated 23rd March 2007
"Under BAU forcing in the 21st century, sea level rise undoubtedly will be dominated by a third term (3) ice sheet disintegration. This third term was small until the past few years, but it is has at least doubled in the past decade and is now close to 1 mm/year, based on gravity satellite measurements discussed above. As a quantitative example, let us say that the ice sheet contribution is 1 cm for the decade 2005-2015 and that it doubles each decade until the West Antarctic ice sheet is largely depleted.
That time constant yields sea level rise of the order of 5 m this century. Of course I can not prove that my choice of a 10 year doubling time for non-linear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise." :Dr James Hansen NASA.
The report on Grist is right next to their face to face interview with your Big Boss Rupert Murdoch on a similar topic of News Corp embracing greenhouse gas neutrality here: An interview with Rupert Murdoch about News Corp.'s new climate strategy of 16th May 2007
I understand the IPCC report you quote from early this year was based on year or more old data especially omitting crevasse mechanism of accelerated melting data.
Bolter, you are sounding like Saul on the road to Damascus.
Poscript #1 (as posted on Melbourne Indy Media website)
Do the math, and Mother Jones
by Tom McL Wednesday June 06, 2007 at 10:32 AM
in 10 yrs - 1 cm sea rise - cumulative 1cm
.....20 yrs - 2cm ................- ...............3cm
.....30 yrs - 4cm ................- ...............7cm
......40 yrs - 8cm................- ...............15cm
......50 yrs - 16cm.............- ................31cm
......60 yrs - 32 cm...........-....................63 cm
......70 yrs - 64 cm............-...................1.27 metres
That's 2077, when this writer is well gone (112) and a 20 year old will be 90 years old. On this quite possible scenario under Dr Hansen's advice the ocean has risen 1.27 metres I suppose a bit like the image above.
But then it gets really 'interesting' on the last two doublings ie horrific just at the turn of the century, or maybe a 99 year lease (!?)
.......80 yrs - 128 cm.........-....................2.55 m
.......90 yrs - 256 cm.........-....................5.11 cm
What really worries me is this article by Mother Jones with 250,000 subscribers there in the USA which describes some 12 different climate tipping points from Amazon forest etc clearance, to methane release in the perma frost, to God knows what else.
Here is the article and it really should be PG or MA reading:
"The Thirteenth Tipping Point" dated Nov-Dec 2006.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2006/11/13th_tipping_point.html
A useful metaphor for the above would be driving a 4 wheel drive down a steep slope in first gear, and if you haven't done driver training, and foolishly, like fatally, put your left foot on and depress the clutch pedal to change to 2nd gear. At this point if you have enough nouse to realise your danger, you have two choices - die at the bottom of the hill or jump out: The gears will never re engage as you gain acceleration at exponential rate of increase. Nor will the brakes and tyre friction overcome the momentum of the car's weight on the skiding slope. The 4WD will crash - 100% certain. That choice is out of your hands from exponential increase in momentum the moment you put the clutch pedal down in a moment of supreme ignorance.
You have to stay in first gear going quietly until you steer to safety.
When I did driver training as a zoology student in 1987 our instructor made us fold our left leg under the seat so he was sure we young bloods in training couldn't kill him by accident on a bush trail by depressing the clutch in a reflex action. Do you get it Bolter?
Postsript #2
Apparently influential columnist Andrew Bolt in his column June 6th 2007
has called in effect for a 6 week time line on removal of PM John Howard to be replaced by Peter Costello .... who as Treasurer took a grilling from Kerry O'Brien of the 7.30 Report last night
Government welcomes strong economic figures
on why his Cabinet submission to act on climate change was rejected by PM Howard 4 years ago 2003. Costello was very light hearted and patient saying he had "set his course" sounding very much like "I told you so".
Also climate change sceptic Cardinal George Pell has been roundly and collectively repudiated by the NSW ALP - ostensibly on stem cell research, but also the subtext of climate change? One wonders. It would be interesting to know if Pell is quoted in the PM Howard's so called Clever Climate PR advertising package.
It would be quite orthodox for Pell to be in Howard's PR as a trenchant critic of the Greens and their alleged rival religious belief in global warming.
The ALP (federal and state) presumably know they have to neutralise Catholic cardinal Pell prior to the next federal election vis a vis Catholic voters on global warming let alone stem cell research for medical benefits.
And to underline how the climate is the main game PM Howard is in the news today prefacing attempts on a post Kyoto international deal at the Sept APEC in Sydney:
MARK DAVIS | John Howard will use this year's APEC summit to try to forge an international consensus on climate change.
Just as Glen Milne has written about this recently: Glenn Milne: APEC makes heavy weather for Howard | Opinion | The ...
Our sense of this is that it's all too late for long time, allegedly indispensible PM Howard.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1626498-2,00.html
April 2007 - 12,087
March 6,684
February 5,372
January 2800
Thankyou to our readers and especially anyone taking the time to comment or offer a story. This particular blog template could be more slick and alot more interactive but it will do for now. Thanks especially for the encouragement from various ngo and other professionals who are also stakeholders (aren't we all) in a vibrant community media sector here in Sydney.
Picture: Fractals 18 by Polish born Autralian artist Barbara Lichi, showing at Brenda May Gallery till June 23rd 2007, 2 Danks St Waterloo Sydney
From our 15 years in the green ngo sector and obsessive media monitoring we advise the following:
First:
The world population is levelling out at about 9 billion by around 2050 says legendary Professor of Biology at Harvard University, Edward O Wilson on an ABC radio national show earlier this year on an alliance with theologians to vouchsafe our future:
Big Idea - 4 February 2007 - EO Wilson and Harvey Cox on Saving ...
Even that is surely too many, but at least slowing down.
Second:
The only proven method of reducing population apart from war or cataclysm or pestilence, which even then is usually short term, is to promote educational life opportunities to the women of society. With such life choices expanded the fertility rate decreases markedly. This is the experience apparently in Indonesia, and certainly in most if not all western countries. More here Green Left - Issues: US feminists debate population control
Conclusion:
So.... if the population pressure can be managed and moderated, then the issue of excessive affluent material consumption remains squarely on the table as well. It's a walk and chew gum kind of reality: There is no avoiding the discipline of a less greedy lifestyle here in Australia, in the West and globally.
Stop being so greedy, seek cultural and spiritual rewards on this earthly strut upon the stage rather than shallow, self defeating materialism per se. Really.
Postscript #1
On cue for World Environment Day, 5th June 2007 Mayor and MP Clover Moore says Sydney will exceed NSW's ecological footprint SOS for a city that's eating itself
These diagrams below first presented in 1995 reveal the process of landscape conversion of native forest from moist old growth fire resistant type, derived from their closed canopy, to dry sclerophyl bushfire prone regrowth type.
As long as a moisture rich closed canopy is in place a high density of ground cover remains of moderate risk and tends to break down quite quickly as well.
The most severe process of logging disruption of the closed forest canopy has been going on since the advent of high intensity 'integrated logging' for timber but also high proportion of woodchips especially since the mid 1970ies. This was around the time of the advent of bulldozers, other big machines and modern chainsaws.
Thus even if a small proportion of a forest of say 2 or 3% suffers high intensity logging per year, after 40 years of pathworking, close to 100% of the moist micro climate will have been destroyed along with the broken canopy. It will take maybe a century to re establish the moist old growth closed canopy microclimate across broad areas of forest IF devastating fires don't constantly set the clock back to zero again in a cruel ecological game of snakes and ladders.
That's how grim the situation has become in large areas of forested south east Australia as a result of rampaging logging and greed. Even much contemporary national park has been patchwork logged already prior to reservation in the last 40 years and still to regain closed canopy moisture. Depending on the fire patterns in the future they may never regain that closed canopy and moisture level.
There are many other factors contributing to bushfire such as ignition sources like arson or naturally occuring dry lightning. Climate impact of low rainfall also impacts fire intensity and risk. Ground fuel levels are also very significant.
But what is apparent in the current anxious reflections and research into how best to deal with the impending catastrophic fires of the futre is that the modern logging industry have been getting away with environmental murder that promotes mega bushfires. It all follows from breaching the natural water cycle under a closed canopy:
The diagrams above are based on the following scientific papers:
Cornish PM (1982) The variation of dissolved ion concentration with discharge in some NSW streams, Forest Hydrologist, Forestry Commission of NSW, The First National Symposium on Forest Hydrology, eds. EM O'Loughlin & L J Bren, May 1982,
Rieger W A, Olive L J and Burgess J S (1982) Behaviour of sediment concentrations and solute concentrations in small forested catchments, University of NSW, Department of Geography, FAculty of Military Studies, The First National Symposium on Forest Hydrology, eds. E M O'Loughlin & L J Bren, May 1982
Stokes R A and Loh I C (1982) 'Sustaining Sensitive Wildlife Within Temperate Forest Landscapes: Regional Systems of Retained Habitat as a Planning Framework', pages 85-106 in Ecology and Sustainability of Southern Temperate Ecosystems, eds. Norton T W & Dovers S R, CSIRO 1994.
Wronski E (1993) Tantawangalo research catchments, Change in water yield after logging, Report to the Forestry Commission of NSW, 1st July 1993
Declaration: The editor/author was called as witness to the NSW Parliamentary Inquiry, and briefly to the Coronial Inquiry after the summer 1993-4 bushfires, as a representative of the Wilderness Society in NSW.
..........................
Postscript #1 to and fro with pro logger Mr Chipman in crikey ezine this last week
Barry Chipman. Tasmanian state manager, Timber Communities Australia, writes: It is rather interesting that the Ecology Action Australia spokesperson (Friday, comments) didn't choose to tell the full story about the nationally agreed criteria (JANIS) for Australian forest conservation, which has brought about Tasmania's world-class forest reserve system of 47% forest biodiversity, 80% old growth, 97% wilderness. What was overlooked is the following very important element and quoting directly from application of the criteria: "Flexibility in the application of reserve criteria is needed because of differing regional circumstances. The criteria are considered to be guidelines rather than mandatory targets. In some circumstances and for some criteria, lower levels of reservation may prove adequate. The extent of potential social and economic impact may limit the ability to meet reserve criteria (see Sections 5.2, 5.4 and 6.1.1 of the JANIS document). Where different configurations of reserves are identified as meeting the criteria, the option that imposes the least cost on the community should be adopted." Also worth noting is one of the key environmental scientists deeply involved in the development of this criteria and then helping bring about Tasmania's balanced world-class forest reserve system gratefully accepted in 2003 the Member of the Order of Australia (AM) medal of his involvement. That citation reads: "Professor James Barrie KIRKPATRICK, Member of the Order of Australia (AM). Citation: For service to environmental conservation, particularly in relation to World Heritage assessment and the development of forest reservation criteria. Date Received 09 June 2003."
Tasmanian Logging:
Tom McLoughlin, ecology action Australia, writes: Mr Chipman (yesterday, comments) must be baffled by his own corrupt RFA agreement specifications. 100 of our best independent forest scientists led by Prof Tony Norton, Prof Jamie Kirkpatrick and other luminaries have described this document as follows: "The Tasmanian Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) is widely perceived in the scientific community to have failed to deliver the intended protection for environmental, wilderness and heritage values that state and federal governments committed to when they signed the National Forest Policy in 1992. The scientific processes in the Tasmanian RFA were overwhelmed by political compromises. Established criteria for forest conservation were not fully applied. There are large areas of high conservation value forest that would have been reserved if the RFA criteria for forest conservation had been fully applied. Logging practices and the conversion of native forests to plantations have intensified in the seven years since the signing of the RFA, resulting in record volumes of export wood chip production. This intensification, combined with the well-documented inadequacies of the conservation reserve system (exemplified by the large areas of unlogged Eucalyptus regnans tall open-forest that remain unprotected) has produced highly modified forested landscapes with diminished landscape values." The full statement and signatories is extracted here. This devastating criticism was before the widespread public concern over climate change. This scientific advice was reported at the time on the radio national Earthbeat program until it was axed soon after the re-election of the Howard Government in 2004.