Sunday political talkies: Consensus that Rudd aka ALP will win but will Australia?
Topic: election Oz 2007
Picture: notable clips from today's Sunday press in Sydney from top
1&2. Glenn Milne runs beat up on Mal Turnbull which may or may not involve a leak from Big Mal, e.g. post election rival Costello, or Downer (given Christian Kerr ran a similar story in Crikey 10 days ago)
3. personal economy pressure on consumers angle being pushed hard by the ALP based on serious data that lower cost of luxury goods is averaging out higher cost of basics hurting the working poor
4. Conservatives traditional fear and loathing angle around bushfire hazard as summer bites looks like being shut down via the sound PR around the new NSW Rural Bushfire Commissioner whose dad paid the ultimate price, and though young has been in the game 23 years. Secondly it's probably climate change related lack of rainfall which the Coalition are exposed on. No banana for Howard there.
Author’s general introductory note (skip this if you know this regular weekly column):
This is not a well packaged story. It’s a contemporaneous traverse of the Sunday television free to air political talkies indicating the agenda of Establishment interests: Better to know ones rivals and allies in Big Politics and Big Media.
Indeed it’s the tv version monitoring task similar to what Nelson Mandela refers to here in his book Long Walk to Freedom (1994, Abacus) written in Robben Island prison (where he was meant to die like other African resister chiefs of history in the 19C), at page 208
“..newspapers are only a shadow of reality; their information is important to a freedom fighter not because it reveals the truth, but because it discloses the biases and perceptions of both those who produce the paper and those who read it.”
Just substitute ‘Sunday tv political talkie shows’ for "newspapers" in the quote above.
For actual transcripts go to web sites quoted below except with Riley Diary on 7. And note transcripts don’t really give you the image content value.
Picture: October 7, 2005.
- Overall observation: Coalition aggressively pushing 'the unions are behind Rudd' aspect very hard all week including tv adverts, just as ALP push 'Costello behind any vote for Howard'. Thus the two major parties are in a narrow tit for tat rhetorical dynamic arguably at the cost of much more important issues like lack of State Govt funded services, hopelessly unsustainable society.
- Joe McDonald a unionist is ejected from the ALP for using fruity language and forgetting to tug his forelock to big business mates of the Labor Party, while Michael OConnor remains on the ALP national executive while effectively supporting this violence to conservationsists:
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all raising the question
'Rudd has been to the funeral of a brave Australian solider complete with national media coverage, but has he ever been to the funeral of a building worker killed on the job?' [we bet Joe McDonald has many times]
- cover story by Paul Kelly (contrary to take out of jaundiced Piers Akerman on Insiders) is flattering, insightful, blesses Rudd effectively but also notes he is "a work in progress" and we interpret this in the Bob Dylan sense 'always growing, evolving and arguably improving'. In this sense yes Rudd is dynamic, and a sensitive instrument. A thrill for those who believe in upskilling and a life of learning. How many Australians feel like Paul Kelly or this writer remains to be seen but the signs are encouraging too.
- Michael Chaney banker and outgoing chair of the Business Council of Australia, now chair of Woodside is pro Kyoto. Mal Turnbull is. Costello is.
- 60 Minutes promo for tonight "proof" the planet is warming.
- Colonial First State Sustainability Fund advert on 9 re implicit climate change.
- "Labor to announce Greens tie-up", preference deal shuts out Family First in the Senate, firms up ALP in most House of Rep seats. p7 27 Oct The Australian [but note too not till Saturday 6 days away that the preferences are final, says Barry Cassidy on Insiders today]. SMH carries same story re frothing Senator Fielding
- grotesque greenwashing? Alcoa tree planting adverts p11 The Oz this weekend. And lets not forget the Alcoa sponsorship of Frog Watch. Where do we start? Investing in dams of mountain rivers for cheap electricity? Massive GHG emissions in the manufacture of aluminium? It's fraught.
- Big media commentariat becoming the story, take 2: Mike Carlton pays out on his rivals scrambling to get a conceptual honourable footing as the power tectonic shifts. Doogue also notes Sheridan big retreat in Howard's grand failure article.
- Crabb the dreadlocked one re focus groups and PM use of same, correctly notes rodent nature of John Howard making his false denial, [with untrustworthy nature also the theme of Laurie Oakes today in his long interview on 9 with the PM, as below, and now Rudd this arvo]. Less whimsy or satire by Crabb rather elbow to solar plexis of govt.
- Scientists say energy supply humanity's biggest threat, p11 resources todays The Australian
- the (sydney) magazine cover pictures legalised drugs (nicotine) dealer Nick Greiner ex politician now company director, next to ex pollie Bob Carr who blessed the offshore coporate trickery of James Hardie asbestos makers via the Supreme Court, when Carr was Premier of NSW. These two folks never looked so glossy or dignified on a unity ticket in the mass fatality business. Killers in suits?
- Story by Glenn Milne p 1 Sunday Telegraph above about Turnbull 'betrayal of Cabinet' [Adelaide sister paper version] implies unauthorised leak by MT. But just as likely Howard or Costello authorised it to control the message? Christian Kerr of Crikey broke the story 10 days ago, not AFR yesterday but no doubt more detail.
- The controversial worm flagged by Amanda Meade 2nd item her gossip column Oct 18th 2007 (ie 3 days ahead of debate) "Nine, which is insisting on dragging out the worm graphic to sex up its coverage ..." No ambushes there.
- Imre Salusinzky fails to credit in an otherwise worthy full page feature the pioneering Green Party via Andrew Wilkie in Bennelong, and similarly in the seat of Wentworth by a conga line of activists, now both marginal and possibly falling to the ALP - "They dared to hope" p24 27 Oct 2007. But the other twist in the tail is the idea that McKew if she wins:
"McKew could easily leapfrog deputy leader Julia Gillard in influence and become the most powerful woman in a Rudd government".
Well aging hack crushes aside, Imre, that's taking it a bit far, but what odds Jenny Macklin on the backbench?
- NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner is the PR antidote to the Coalition mega fire strategy against ALP states as summer approaches. His father died fighting bushfires. Understudy to Minister Phil Koperberg. 23 years in the game, head of operations for 10 years. Sun Herald p51 28/10 [offline by the looks, picture above]
- curious grouching by News ltd press about missing the advertising dollars in an airbus wrap around, tries to push unpatriotic button re dead solider, hence p3 personal pics of fallen hero in Sun Herald today as rebuttal from Fairfax [offline?]
- This devastating line in an article about one of our dead soliders in Afghanistan "But after the Prime Minister, John Howard, withdrew Australian special forces late last year to assist with preparations for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit, the Taliban returned" Under the authorship of Tom Allard, Ash Sweeting. The implication is that Oz soldiers put in harms way by ultra secure APEC Sydney indulgence - should have been in Canberra. (p1 Oct 27 SMH "Soldier respected foe who killed him"
- Milne has follow up story tipping Stephen Long's great World Today interview about differential regressive CPI increase masked by averaging of lower cost luxury goods. Long is right, Milne is right, Swan is on a winner too. Echoes Meglogenis "It's the personal economy" p22 Oct 13 2007.
- Higher Education The Oz p26 17/10 "Wedge fear will stop ALP fixing Lib failure" refers to "tweedledum and tweedledee" which I believe was a phrase first used in 1993 by The Wilderness Society to describe both ALP and Coalition policies on 'resource security' open slather logging. Possibly adapted by Peter Warrington or Karenne Jurd, hence the personal attacks later by Paul Keating of KJ and TWS.
- Big thread of FoI reform stories here and here and here and here involving serious academics but also serious players like Chris Merritt as here, Rudd, Hartigan and Garrett especially re $12K bill in follow up to Good Weekend cover story on dying Great Barrier Reef Oct 13 2007 from climate change.
- John Durie Oct 10 p44 The Australian - "Big Gunns gamble needs brave board/ The decision on a mill is literally a bet-the-company proposition". In short the economics don't add up. Similarly strong summary of tricks of redefinition of "old growth" by Matthew Denholm in "Chip off the old blockade" but TWS campaigner gets definition confused too for our money - any tree with hollows is old growth p22 Oct 27 2007 The Australian.
- Ructions in Big Business with Paul Anthony as CEO of AGL getting 'shafted' (along with spinner Sue Cato) was prominent on promoting climate change policies. The coverage is suggestive of a bit of an operational stuff up [possibly offline called "Cold snap stretches the gas pipeline to breaking point" p24 Tues Oct 23 2007 The Australian] which might have caused a mini capital strike against AGL by its customers? Michael Chaney similarly supports CC policy reform and is now chair of Woodside as Shell director Russell Caplan bails out. Woodside was perch of Gary Gray now an ALP candidate in Kim Beazley's old seat.
- Malcolm Maiden correctly identified the 'indispensibility/ in denial/ we'll all be rooned' syndrome with Peter Costello predicting global financial meltdown, as a projection of his own political meltdown. p45 27 Oct 07 smh.
- [to be continued]
10 Meet the Press
Press roundup, Leads with Turnbull pro Kyoto (tick Christian Kerr)
Paul Bongiorno as compere with Greens Senator Bob Brown.
BB says we are economic conservatives – don’t make $34B tax cuts put into ‘nation building stuff’ (my term).
On Turnbull pro Kyoto but 10M tonnes pa ghg from pulp mill. Preference ALP in Wentworth but not Tasmania.
Addresses Family First smears and poison. Drug policy "very similar harm minimisation to John Howard $200M policy"
Myspace question re leaders debate – BB says left out environment and no real address of CC.
Keating sledge footage with Costello balancer.
3rd advert first break, IR pro union position, real people real stories. Your rights at work advert.
Senate unity ticket Lundy ALP, BB Greens, Allison for Aust Democrats. Very good simple clear advert.
Panel Mal Far, Daily Telegraph – people want to vote ALP but Coalition in Senate as offset. BB reality is cross bench should get power back. [clear back lash advert against pro Howard Family First ratbags].
Patricia Karvelas The Aust – Family First attack on Green Party desperate and extreme panic says BB. Refer report in The Australian article in media backgrounder earlier in the week.
MF – Melb Sydney Grayndler best chance. Greens just an inner city party? Strongest vote for senate in the ACT says BB. But lower house? Young intelligent classy candidates in the House of Reps.
Big Ipsos poll big tax packages cancel themselves out for ALP and Coalition.
Dorothy Dixer my space question, vote process. Double value Nicholson animation of Howard enemies under the bed.
Get Up spoof advert on climate change policies of the Howard Govt.
2nd guest: Afghan ambassador
PK - re targeting of our soldiers? [refer killer line in SMH report on Saturday re APEC impact on fight with Taliban, reference in due course, damning indulgence]
Didn’t hear answer.
MF – Iraq distraction from fight in Afghan? Waffle answer but the question is the answer.
[moderate English didn’t really work as a tv exercise, sadly]
Transcript in due course www.ten.com.au/meetthepress ,
Myspace web address: www.myspace.com/meetthepeople
7 Weekend Sunrise, 8.35-40 am Riley Diary -
Lead story news roundup Turnbull pro Kyoto.
Good roundup. Aggressive Liberal voters [balance out visuals of union ‘thugs’ and actually reflect very well on Rudd diplomacy – vote winner].
Ear wax embarrassment video gets a run. Shows desperation of Coalition to attack personal hygiene? Rudd wins week says MR, other side “implodes”.
“empty blatherings” good line re pollies. “When it comes to” counter.
News wrap is Mal Turnbull pro Kyoto 1st story. Lismore tornado.
Panel on senate with Lyn Allison, Fielding Assembly of God party, Bob Brown Green Party.
Greens will preference ALP in Reps, ALP in the Senate says Barry Cassidy. Fielding spreads poison on Greens, says “crazy”
BB says as doctor hates drug addiction, supports full force of the law on drug sellers.
Back to panel Karen Middleton sbs, Toohey Fairfax, Akerman Sydney Telegraph.
Home page is http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/
News wrap caught the end of it with Rudd on climate, Howard “lost in the past”. Lismore tornado spooky footage. Mega fire in California more climate bad news. It all part of the drum beat on climate change.
Laurie Oakes with PM Howard. Soft deadly tone of questioning. Howard quoted ‘7 Oct 2004 or 2005’ that he claimed 30 year low interest rates. So was actually out of his own mouth.
Howard refuses to condemn Turnbull or any leak of Cabinet.
Long interview. No knock out punch by LO. Howard dogmatic no regrets re Iraq slaughter.
Q & A with LO - themes about trust of Howard - "once bitten twice shy". Said in a soft deadly tone.
Feature on seat of Latrobe in Victoria. Kroger prominent.
Posted by editor
at 9:40 AM NZT
Updated: Monday, 29 October 2007 10:04 AM NZT