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Problem for winning Libs is that you ought not listen to cocky certainty of proven losers. Downer as sacked federal leader mid 90ies, Fahey March 1995 (despite an Olympics and saving Prince Charles from a madman), Hewson who lost the so called "unloseable election" in 1993.

The Liberal Party should get real. Howard's vanity is there for all to see. Rudd has been practicising how to be humble and is not so set in his ways a la climate change etc.

And speaking of which issue Hewson says 'climate change is the greatest challenge for Australia for decades if not centuries' [really he said that, an issue Costello tried to run via Cabinet in 2003], and that he didn't support Howard taking Australia into Iraq.

Well onya John, like your style, the sincere feral abacus and all that, but hey that's a very tepid endorsement for vain old man Howard, who will 'have to be carried out in a pine box'. You said it Abacus. You are describing an old man consumed by the ring of power.

Dangerous to all. Hope the Libs can do "the execution" as Christian Kerr noted on News Radio 630 earlier today. The future of the country probably depends on it to some degree.

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Image from Crikey.com.au to 40K subscribers 11th Sept 07 follows here

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Postscript #1 1pm 12th Sept 2007

Nothing and everything changes after the lengthy party room meeting of the Liberal and then joint Coalition Party today:

There is no formal challenge to Howard's leadership after cunning pre emption of post APEC challenge by sending Downer into the Cabinet's midst and finding out the mindset, and who is really pushing against him, to be prepared.

If there had been an APEC riot he wouldn't need the real politik insurance but better to be sure: Send Alex into the flock to see who were wolves under wool.

But there is a price to be paid:

1. Everyone on the backbench, in the media, in the political community now knows there was a majority of Cabinet who support Howard resigning and all that implies, as per reports of a cosy gathering last Thursday or so in Downer's hotel room during the APEC 'gabfest';

2. The next devastating flatlining Newspoll is in 5 days time, Monday night if memory serves, once every two weeks. The same polling evidence that prefaced the current leadership crisis of confidence felt by former political client ministers and backbenchers within the Coalition, will only be reinforced ...most likely ...in 5 days time.

3. According to the history of these things the first phase is the evidence of a geniuine significant shift in sentiment. We have seen that now at point 1 formal vote or not. The second act is the actual execution. In five days time after the next Newspoll?

4. Counter to this scenario is the claim that internal Party polling by Cosby Textor shows the Howard Coalition are actually in striking distance 46-54 in some critical marginals like Eden Monaro. It hardly seems pursuasive though with general polling in the annihilation range of 42 - 58 or worse 40 - 60. The odd Eden Monaro doesn't withstand a tsunami like that. There are a hell of a lot of other backbenchers on fine sensory alert now besides just Gary Nairn.

Quack quack ... erk.

Postscript #2 7.30 am 13th Sept 07

Howard feeds the leadership crocodile, to eat him next

You know that old fable about never feeding a crocodile because they are always hungry? Once you start you just have to keep feeding it until the hand itself is inside the jaws and the rest quickly follows.

The Greens/greenies know the metaphor well because it's what the two major parties say about offering appeasing policy on say forest protection: The Greens are never satisfied and the crocodile will just want more forest to lock up after that. That's Wilson Tuckey with that acute comment, because yes the Greens do want a sustainable society, and there's nothing wrong with that either. Bob Carr called it the wolves with lambent eyes looking up for more chunks of meat after the meal seconds earlier (of some forest protection). Tuckey/Carr - same resource politicians in essence.

But today in the current politics de jour the crocodile is the damning polling against vain old man John Howard. The unchanging crushing reality of that polling means Howard has to appease the change/succession merchants in his own party .... to buy time.

Last week Howard reacted to that reality by sending trusty Alex Downer into the midst of the issue, just like he surely sent Geof Cousins/Heffernan into the midst of the Tas pulp mill issue to get control of it again, Howards agents pissing in opponents pockets while always supporting resource extraction his whole life.

This week Howard aka Rodent has glared down an open challenge, and when that didn't kill the crocodile, has fed it a big chunk of meat today with an undefined, unreliable, unbelievable retirement sometime in the next 3 years. He won't even retire from Bennelong, maybe pulling strings still like the Mufti from Lakemba?

Howard's got no clothes. The Newspoll next Monday/Tuesday is the next act in this tragedy evolving into farce. Beazley was in the news yesterday saying Howard has until end of the week.

The next group of polls will be Pythonesque - it's only a flesh wound, blood spurting from the stump.